Central Texas Economy In Perspective

By Beverly Kerr, Chamber Vice President of Research

Friday’s Texas Workforce Commission and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases of December 2009 workforce numbers marked the 8th month running that the Austin metro, on a year-over-year basis, has lost jobs. Austin’s nonfarm payroll jobs total 781,000 in December, a loss of 2,300
(-0.3%) over December 2008. It should be noted that this year-over-year difference is the smallest Austin has seen since May, and as the graph below indicates, the difference has been steadily narrowing over the last several months.

On our customary ranking of the best performing large metros, we retain second place behind Virginia Beach. Austin’s aggregate job losses of 2,300 or 0.3% compare to 42,100 or -2.0% for Dallas, 8,000 or -0.9% for Fort Worth, 92,500 or -3.5% for Houston, and 9,000 or -1.1% for San Antonio.

Texas has 277,400 fewer jobs (-2.6%) than one year ago and has been seeing negative year-over-year numbers for 11 months. Nationally, 4,096,000 jobs (-3.0%) have been lost over the last 12 months and this is the 20th month of year-over-year decline.

In Austin’s private sector, 6 industries lost jobs in the last 12 months, with the greatest numbers and the highest rates of loss, from -5.6% to -11.1%, in 3 of these: natural resources/construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade. These sectors lost a combined total of 11,900 jobs. A combined total of 1,600 jobs were lost in 3 other sectors: transportation/warehousing/ utilities, retail trade, and information. One of Austin’s negative growth sectors, manufacturing, lost a greater percentage in Austin than it did statewide (-11.1% vs. -9.8%).

Moderate increases were seen in professional and business services (700 net new jobs or 0.6%), other services (800 or 2.5%), and government (1,800 or 1.1%). Larger rates of increase were seen in education/health services (4,000 or 4.9%), financial activities (1,300 or 2.9%), and leisure/hospitality (2,600 or 3.3%). Texas edged over Austin’s growth rates only in the government sector. The only other sectors growing state wide were education/health services and other services, but Austin added at a greater rate in both of these industries.

Austin’s net gains in private service providing industries (4,800) and in government (1,800) were outweighed by a loss of 8,900 jobs in goods producing industries. Austin’s goods producing jobs decline of -8.6% was matched by Houston this month, which saw the same year-over-year loss. Dallas, Fort Worth, and San Antonio’s declines ranged from -2.8% to -5.8%. However, losses were greater statewide, -12.2%. While Austin’s manufacturing losses were greater than the state’s, our construction losses (-5.6%) were considerably lower than seen statewide (-14.6%). Among Texas’ major metros, Austin was the only one seeing a year-over-year net gain in private service-providing jobs. Dallas and Houston lost the most in these sectors, -3.0% and -1.9% respectively.